UFC 121 Preview

The Main Event: Heavyweight Title Bout
Brock Lesnar (5-1) vs. Cain Velasquez (8-0)
The Breakdown: There’s no such thing as a three-inch dildo. I can hear you saying: “Fair enough, but unless the rules have really changed, I don’t see what this has to do with the UFC.” Allow me to expound. Cain Velasquez might have the biggest gastank of any heavyweight. He might be the finest wrestler at 265 and high in the running for the best in the UFC. None of this matters. Lesnar will Hulk up and charge across the cage, lay on top of Velasquez and pound him with fists the size of Swedish babies. You know why? Because size matters. I like Velasquez a great deal, but I can’t picture him winning this fight. For whatever reason, a lot of experts have talked themselves into Velasquez saying things like, “if he can survive the first two rounds,” and “get out of a couple bad positions,” and “not get his sinuses punched through the back of his skull” he will take Lesnar’s belt.
My Pick: Brock’s pants will not fall. Lesnar by TKO in the second.
Gore Factor: Medium to high. Lesnar practiced his particular form of hardcore plastic surgery on Mir. He’ll do the same to Cain.

Welterweight Bout
Jake Shields (25-4-1) vs. Martin “The Hitman” Kampmann (17-3)
The Breakdown: When picking fights, I have a simple rule: When in doubt, pick the wrestler. That’s Shields in this case, but to be fair, I’m not really in doubt. Shields has been tearing through quality guys for the past four years, including a lot of former and future contenders at both welter and middleweight. His high-pressure grappling should unravel Kampmann’s game plan: “Punch him in the face till he stops moving.” That dumps the Hitman square on his back where Shields has the decided advantage. Not that Kampmann is helpless on the ground, but “underrated” is a far cry from “dear god, someone pull this psycho off me!”
My Pick: Shields by decision. They’ll probably give him the winner of the GSP/Koscheck scrap, AKA GSP.
Gore Factor: Light. Shields might get bloodied up on his way in.

Welterweight Bout
Diego “Nightmare” Sanchez (23-4) vs. Paulo Thiago (13-2)
The Breakdown: “Nightmare” is taking on the appearance of an ironic nickname. That’s not really a fair statement, but I’ll make it anyway. After being broken by BJ Penn and upset by John Hathaway, Sanchez is in desperate need of a victory. He’ll come on like a tidal wave and since he’s cutting a lot less weight, he should be fighting on a full tank of gas. The problem is that getting taken down is exactly what Thiago wants. First, he gets to employ his reach advantage on the way in, then can transfer to his submission game while Sanchez crawls all over him. Can he concentrate with someone elbowing him in the head? Only time and a couple classes at the learning annex will tell.
My Pick: Thiago by decision.
Gore Factor: Medium to high, especially once those elbows start flying.

Light Heavyweight Bout
“The Huntington Beach Bad Boy” Tito Ortiz (16-7-1) vs. Matt “The Hammer” Hamill (10-2)
The Breakdown: Will someone just retire this idiot already? Ortiz is overrated, over-hyped and over the hill. He’s only fighting people he thinks he can win, and when he inevitably gets out-pointed, he launches into a litany of excuses worthy of a premature ejaculating scuba ghost. I don’t really know what that means. Anyway, you in this match, you have a younger, stronger, non-wifebeating version of Tito. It’s like he’ll be fighting his past.
My Pick: Hamill by decision.
Gore Factor: Light. This match is mostly about control.

Heavyweight Bout
Brendan “The Hybrid” Schaub (7-1) vs. Gabriel “Napao” Gonzaga (11-5)
The Breakdown: BOOM! Headshot! Schaub has shown a yen for one-shotting guys since he was one-shotted by Roy Nelson back at the TUF 10 season finale. It’s like Schaub absorbed the entirety of the punch into his frontal lobe. Gonzaga started life as a gorilla, peacefully eating leaves and whatnot, until someone shaved him and decided to teach him jiu-jitsu. He promptly beat his captors to death and started his career in the UFC. Gonzaga is no slouch on the feet, and that’s the problem. He’ll want to stand and trade with Schaub, which is the worst idea not called Avatar 2: Unobtanium Addiction.
My Pick: This comes down to a simple chemical equation. Gonzaga tends to get knocked out. Schaub tends to knock people out. Schaub by KO in the early minutes of the fight.
Gore Factor: Light. I don’t see many punches being thrown.

Undercard Highlight: Middleweight Bout
Patrick “the Predator” Cote (13-6) vs. “Filthy” Tom Lawlor (6-3, 1 NC)
The Breakdown: I nearly picked the Court McGee fight, just because I love the Amish Zombie (he’ll win that one, I’m hoping by submission). I ended up going with this one for the desperation angle. These guys need a win badly. They’re both riding two losses into the fight and one more of those puts them in danger of the axe. Lawlor’s wrestling should let him decide where the fight goes, and if he’s got any brains in his head, that means keeping it on the feet. Getting on the mat with Cote is like accepting a ride home from Dane Cook: one way or another, you’re getting raped.
My Pick: Lawlor’s striking is, to put it nicely, not up to the challenge. Cote by decision.
Gore Factor: Light. Boxing faces.

This is a good buy, especially in light of last week’s all-British card. If nothing else, we can all wonder what lab Lesnar escaped from. Seriously. I want to know this.

About Justin

Author, mammal. www.captainsupermarket.com
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1 Response to UFC 121 Preview

  1. Justin says:

    I have never been so happy to be so wrong. I’m going out to buy my three inch dildo now.

    Lesnar vs. Velasquez
    My pick: Lesnar by TKO round 2
    What happened: Velasquez by TKO round 1
    CAAAAAAIIIIIIN!

    Shields vs. Kampmann
    My pick: Shields by decision
    What happened: Shields by decision

    Sanchez vs. Thiago
    My pick: Thiago by decision
    What happened: Sanchez by decision

    Ortiz vs. Hamill
    My pick: Hamill by decision
    What happened: Hamill by decision

    Schaub vs. Gonzaga
    My pick: Schaub by KO round 1
    What happened: Schaub by decision

    Cote vs. Lawlor
    My pick: Cote by decision
    What happened: Lawlor by decision

    Hey, can I take credit for picking Court by submission? No? Damn, okay.

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